October PMI up, but demand and output on the decline

| 0 Comments

PMI_Economy_150.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.1 index points in October 2019, up from 45.1 index points in September 2019.

The October level was slightly higher than the average of 47.3 recorded during Quarter 3 and in line with the average of 48.3 points recorded during the first nine months of 2019.

The October PMI release incorporated updated seasonal adjustment factors for all of the seasonally-adjusted indices.

Four of the PMI's sub-components improved from September, with only Inventories moving down.

The Business Activity Index increased after two consecutive declines. The index is now more or less in line with the average recorded during the first nine months of 2019.

The New Sales Orders Index rose slightly in October to 44.5 points. The uptick was not enough to offset the sharp drop recorded in September and the index remained more than 8 points below a recent high reached in July.

Both indices remained below the neutral 50-point mark, pointing to a decline in demand and output.

This was countered by the Supplier Deliveries Index, which improved further in October to 56.5 points. The index is at a four-month high and has now fully recovered from a sharp decline recorded in August.

The Supplier Deliveries Index tracks the performance of suppliers of materials, goods and services to the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. Faster delivery is seen as a negative factor as it signals suppliers were less busy than the month before. As such, the inverse of the index is used to calculate the PMI.

The Employment Index rose for a second month to 42.3 points. While this is the highest level since May 2019, the level remains very weak compared to a longer-term history. The 20-year average of the series is 5 points higher than the current reading.

The headline PMI has only managed to edge above the neutral 50-point mark twice during the course of 2019 (in January and July). Even with the difficult current environment, respondents turned more negative about business conditions going forward. The index tracking expected business conditions in six months' time fell to 45.7 in October - the lowest level in the past year. Respondents might be concerned about the potential influence that a slowing global economy will have on demand for exported goods. The mid-month bout of load shedding likely also dampened spirits.

The Inventories Index edged down further from an already 10-year low reached in September. The index remains the lowest of the five sub-indices included in the headline PMI.

The Purchasing Price Index broke its recent upward trend and declined after three consecutive increases. The index fell by 7.7 points to 69 points in October. This was despite the Rand, on average, weakening somewhat during the month.

Leave a comment


 

 

Career opportunites

Procurement Manager

  • >500 000 Gauteng Permanent Procurement Management
Job purpose We are looking for a Procurement

Fresh Demand Planner/Supply Chain Analyst

  • Analyst Operations, Planning & Inventory Permanent Supply Chain Western Cape
(Jnr - Mid Level), Supply Chain Planning, Based

Groceries Demand Planner/Supply Chain Analyst

  • Analyst Operations, Planning & Inventory Permanent Supply Chain Western Cape
(Mid Level) Supply Chain Planning, Based at Kenilworth,

Category Implementation Manager

  • >500 000 Gauteng Permanent Projects / Category Management Supply Chain
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Head of Procurement

  • >500 000 Gauteng Permanent Procurement Management Strategic Sourcing
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Regional Sourcing Manager

  • >500 000 Gauteng Permanent Procurement Management Strategic Sourcing
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Procurement Director

  • >500 000 KwaZulu Natal Permanent Procurement Management Strategic Sourcing
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Procurement Specialist

  • >500 000 Buyer Gauteng Permanent Procurement Officer / Specialist
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Senior Sourcing Manager

  • >500 000 Gauteng Permanent Procurement Management Strategic Sourcing Supply Chain
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Indirect Sourcing Programme Manager

  • >500 000 Contract Projects / Category Management Strategic Sourcing Western Cape
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

Deputy Chief Commercial Officer

  • >500 000 Contract Gauteng Procurement Management Supplier / Business Development
As an Executive Search and Career Consultant specializing

GROUP PROCUREMENT MANAGER

  • Gauteng Permanent Procurement Management Supplier / Business Development
Operating out of Johannesburg, this is a key

Tutor and Coordinator

  • Gauteng Operations, Planning & Inventory Permanent Procurement Management Supplier / Business Development
Purpose of the job: To plan, coach, advise

Commodity Manager

  • <500 000 Commodities Gauteng Procurement Management
Are you a Commodity Manager looking for the

Supply Chain Professional

  • <500 000 Gauteng Procurement Management Supply Chain
I specialize in placing professionals in the Supply

Supply Planning

  • <500 000 Gauteng Operations, Planning & Inventory Supply Chain
Seeking dynamic candidates to take to the market

Industrial Engineer

  • <500 000 Gauteng Industrial Engineer Procurement Consultant
Are you an Industrial Engineer looking to make

Logistics Manager

  • >500 000 Gauteng Logistics & Warehousing Supply Chain
Seeking vibrant industry specific individuals seeking new opportunities

Operations Manager

  • <500 000 Gauteng Operations, Planning & Inventory Procurement Management
Looking for an Operations Manager to take into

Supply Chain Systems Administrator

  • >500 000 Gauteng Procurement Management Strategic Sourcing Supply Chain
One of South Africa's leading, mining companies is