PMI

Following a robust increase in August 2020, the Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked up further to 58.3 index points in September. The shift to a lower lockdown level mid-month likely drove the further improvement in business conditions in the local manufacturing sector.

However, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) cautioned that the fact that the level of the PMI is now above pre-pandemic levels does not directly translate to official manufacturing activity being back to pre-pandemic levels.

"Owing to the month-on-month comparison asked for in the PMI questionnaire, the high level merely means that conditions continue to improve (with more respondents reporting an increase in output, for example, instead of no change or a decline compared to the previous month). This can still be entirely consistent with the level of output remaining well below that recorded prior to the lockdown", said the BER.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2020 declined slightly compared with June, but continued to signal a further month-on-month improvement for conditions in the manufacturing sector. The PMI declined to 51.2 index points in July, from 53.9 in June, thereby staying above the neutral 50-point mark for a third consecutive month. This suggests that official manufacturing output should still reflect a month-on-month improvement in activity, but that levels are stabilising and that July's increase is likely to be significantly less than those signalled by the PMI in May and June.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2020 showed that conditions continued to improve in the South African manufacturing sector. This is after most of the sector came to a near standstill during the nationwide Level 5 lockdown in April 2020 and only partially returned to normal production levels in May 2020.

The headline PMI rose further to 53.9 index points in June, up from 50.2 in May.

Importantly, while the headline PMI rose to a multi-year high, this does not mean that the level of actual manufacturing production rose to a multi-year high. "Instead, the further rise in June merely means that a solid month-on-month increase was likely recorded", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

The Business Activity Index of the Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey crashed to an all-time low of a mere 5.1 index points in April 2020. The decline means that manufacturing output came to a near standstill during the nationwide lockdown, with almost all respondents reporting a decline in activity compared to the previous month.

During Quarter 1 of 2020, the seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) experienced its weakest quarterly performance since 2009. The PMI averaged at 45.9 index points, compared with 47.6 in Quarter 4 of 2019.

The weak quarterly outcome was despite the PMI improving to 48.1 index points in March 2020, from 44.3 index points in February. Nonetheless, the PMI still remained in contractionary terrain for the 14th consecutive month.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined for a fourth consecutive month to reach 44.3 points in February 2020. The 0.9-point decline brought the index to its lowest level since the second half of 2009 when the economy started to recover from a deep recession triggered by the global financial crisis.

"At four points below the average reading in 2019, the current level is only six points above the lowest point reached in 2009", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) started 2020 on the back foot and declined further in January. The PMI lost 1.9 points to reach 45.2 index points, the lowest level since September 2019.

The performance of the five major sub-components was mixed, with two indices recovering somewhat from multi-year lows reached in the previous month, and three declining in January.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower in December 2019 to 47.1 index points, down from 47.7 points recorded in November 2019. The December figure is about 1 point below the average recorded throughout 2019.

The PMI paints a bleak picture of the manufacturing sector's performance in 2019 as the headline PMI managed to edge above 50 points for only two months in the year. Bouts of load shedding, persistent weak domestic demand and more intense headwinds from the global economy likely weighed on activity during the year.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked down to 47.7 index points in November from 48.1 in October. The decline was broad-based as four of the five subcomponents of the headline PMI nudged down compared with the previous month.

Despite the decline, the average level of the PMI in October and November is still slightly above that recorded in Q3.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.1 index points in October 2019, up from 45.1 index points in September 2019.

The October level was slightly higher than the average of 47.3 recorded during Quarter 3 and in line with the average of 48.3 points recorded during the first nine months of 2019.

The October PMI release incorporated updated seasonal adjustment factors for all of the seasonally-adjusted indices.

Four of the PMI's sub-components improved from September, with only Inventories moving down.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 41.6 index points in September, down from 45.7 in August. This was the second consecutive large fall in the PMI and brought the index more than 10 points below a recent high of 52.1 points reached in July 2019. At the time, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) did caution that the robust July reading was unlikely to be sustained given weak underlying demand conditions.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 45.7 index points in August 2019, down from 52.1 in July 2019.

While the magnitude of the decline may have been larger than anticipated, a fall in the PMI in August was not unexpected. This followed on July's surprisingly solid reading despite the weak domestic demand environment and growing concerns about the health of the global economy.

All of the PMI's major sub-components came in below the neutral 50-point mark, signalling general weakness in the sector.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measured 52.1 index points in July 2019, up from 46.2 index points in June 2019. This is the first reading above the neutral 50-point mark since December 2018.

"The improvement is well-supported by the underlying sub-components, with four of the major five sub-components coming in above the neutral 50-point mark, signalling an expansion in activity", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

"However, given growing concerns about the health of the global manufacturing sector, it remains to be seen whether this improvement can be sustained going forward", noted BER.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 46.2 index points in June 2019, up from 45.4 in May 2019. "The average level for Quarter 2 of 2019 was 46.3 points, below the level recorded in Quarter 1 of 2019", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

In contrast, available official statistics suggest that quarterly manufacturing output is set to rebound strongly in Quarter 2 after a dismal first quarter. "However, part of this rebound is driven by a normalisation in output after load shedding disrupted production earlier in the year", explained BER.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) erased most of last month's gains as it fell to 45.4 index points in May 2019, down from 47.2 index points in April 2019. Barring a drop to 45 index points in March 2019, this is the weakest level since October 2018. The decline brought the average PMI for the first two months of Quarter 2 of 2019 to 46.3 points, below the Quarter 1 of 2019 average of 47.1 points.

"This, unfortunately, does not bode well for a recovery in activity in the manufacturing sector after output declined notably on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Quarter 1", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

The seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.2 points to reach 47.2 index points in April. This was the first increase after three months of decline.

Remaining below the neutral 50-point mark, the PMI is more or less in line with the average recorded in Quarter 1 of 2019. "This means that factory conditions stabilised at a fairly depressed level at the start of Quarter 2", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) continued downwards to 45 points exactly in March 2019, from 46.2 in February. This was the third consecutive month of decline.

As was the case in February, two of the PMI's major sub-components came in above the 50-point mark, while three were stuck in negative terrain. "However, all but one of the main sub-indices declined compared with February", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

The seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 46.2 index points in February 2019, down from 49.9 in January. "Despite the decline, the average recorded during the first two months of Quarter 1 of 2019 is slightly above the average seen in Quarter 4 of 2018", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in its February report.