PMI

PMI continues its decline to 2009 financial-crisis levels

PMI_down_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined for a fourth consecutive month to reach 44.3 points in February 2020. The 0.9-point decline brought the index to its lowest level since the second half of 2009 when the economy started to recover from a deep recession triggered by the global financial crisis.

"At four points below the average reading in 2019, the current level is only six points above the lowest point reached in 2009", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

PMI ushers in 2020 with a decline

PMI_Economy_150.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) started 2020 on the back foot and declined further in January. The PMI lost 1.9 points to reach 45.2 index points, the lowest level since September 2019.

The performance of the five major sub-components was mixed, with two indices recovering somewhat from multi-year lows reached in the previous month, and three declining in January.

PMI paints a bleak picture of the manufacturing sector's 2019 performance

PMI_Economy_150.jpgThe Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower in December 2019 to 47.1 index points, down from 47.7 points recorded in November 2019. The December figure is about 1 point below the average recorded throughout 2019.

The PMI paints a bleak picture of the manufacturing sector's performance in 2019 as the headline PMI managed to edge above 50 points for only two months in the year. Bouts of load shedding, persistent weak domestic demand and more intense headwinds from the global economy likely weighed on activity during the year.

November PMI loses some of October's gains

PMI_Nov2019_200.jpgThe seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked down to 47.7 index points in November from 48.1 in October. The decline was broad-based as four of the five subcomponents of the headline PMI nudged down compared with the previous month.

Despite the decline, the average level of the PMI in October and November is still slightly above that recorded in Q3.

October PMI up, but demand and output on the decline

PMI_Economy_150.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.1 index points in October 2019, up from 45.1 index points in September 2019.

The October level was slightly higher than the average of 47.3 recorded during Quarter 3 and in line with the average of 48.3 points recorded during the first nine months of 2019.

The October PMI release incorporated updated seasonal adjustment factors for all of the seasonally-adjusted indices.

Four of the PMI's sub-components improved from September, with only Inventories moving down.

SA PMI heads south along with our trading partners

PMI_down_100.jpgThe seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 41.6 index points in September, down from 45.7 in August. This was the second consecutive large fall in the PMI and brought the index more than 10 points below a recent high of 52.1 points reached in July 2019. At the time, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) did caution that the robust July reading was unlikely to be sustained given weak underlying demand conditions.

August PMI decline larger than anticipated

PMIdown_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 45.7 index points in August 2019, down from 52.1 in July 2019.

While the magnitude of the decline may have been larger than anticipated, a fall in the PMI in August was not unexpected. This followed on July's surprisingly solid reading despite the weak domestic demand environment and growing concerns about the health of the global economy.

All of the PMI's major sub-components came in below the neutral 50-point mark, signalling general weakness in the sector.

PMI and its sub-components improved in July but sustainability is in question

GlobalManufacturingConcern_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measured 52.1 index points in July 2019, up from 46.2 index points in June 2019. This is the first reading above the neutral 50-point mark since December 2018.

"The improvement is well-supported by the underlying sub-components, with four of the major five sub-components coming in above the neutral 50-point mark, signalling an expansion in activity", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

"However, given growing concerns about the health of the global manufacturing sector, it remains to be seen whether this improvement can be sustained going forward", noted BER.

June PMI up, but weak demand limits recovery potential

Headwind_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 46.2 index points in June 2019, up from 45.4 in May 2019. "The average level for Quarter 2 of 2019 was 46.3 points, below the level recorded in Quarter 1 of 2019", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

In contrast, available official statistics suggest that quarterly manufacturing output is set to rebound strongly in Quarter 2 after a dismal first quarter. "However, part of this rebound is driven by a normalisation in output after load shedding disrupted production earlier in the year", explained BER.

PMI paints poor picture for manufacturing activity recovery

manufacturing_trouble_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) erased most of last month's gains as it fell to 45.4 index points in May 2019, down from 47.2 index points in April 2019. Barring a drop to 45 index points in March 2019, this is the weakest level since October 2018. The decline brought the average PMI for the first two months of Quarter 2 of 2019 to 46.3 points, below the Quarter 1 of 2019 average of 47.1 points.

"This, unfortunately, does not bode well for a recovery in activity in the manufacturing sector after output declined notably on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Quarter 1", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

PMI indicates manufacturing stabilised in April, but at a depressed level

Headwind_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.2 points to reach 47.2 index points in April. This was the first increase after three months of decline.

Remaining below the neutral 50-point mark, the PMI is more or less in line with the average recorded in Quarter 1 of 2019. "This means that factory conditions stabilised at a fairly depressed level at the start of Quarter 2", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

March PMI continues downward trend

PMI.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) continued downwards to 45 points exactly in March 2019, from 46.2 in February. This was the third consecutive month of decline.

As was the case in February, two of the PMI's major sub-components came in above the 50-point mark, while three were stuck in negative terrain. "However, all but one of the main sub-indices declined compared with February", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

February 2019 PMI down

Manufacturing_PMI_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 46.2 index points in February 2019, down from 49.9 in January. "Despite the decline, the average recorded during the first two months of Quarter 1 of 2019 is slightly above the average seen in Quarter 4 of 2018", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in its February report.

January PMI points to solid start to 2019

PMI_strong_start_200.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower to 49.9 index points in January 2019, down from 50.7 in December 2018.

Despite the decline, the index remains 2 points above the average recorded in 2018, which suggests that manufacturing started the year on fairly solid footing.

The performance of the PMI's sub-components was more mixed, with many of the sub-indices declining compared with their December levels.

PMI ends 2018 with its best performance

manu_PMI_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ended 2018 on a positive note, reaching its best level of the year. The PMI rose from 49.5 in November to 50.7 in December, which is just above the neutral 50-point mark and signals growth in the sector.

The headline PMI was well supported by three of the five sub-components: activity, demand and supplier performance. However, employment moved lower, while the Inventories Index edged back below the neutral 50-point mark, noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in its January report.

November PMI shakes off 3-straight-month decline

PMI_growth.jpgThe seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5 index points in November from 42.4 in October.

This was the PMI's first increase after three straight months of declines and brought the index to the best level since July 2018.

The improvement was broad-based with four out of the five main subcomponents rising compared with October.

Unchanged PMI dashes hopes that August decline was temporary

Manufacturing_150.jpgThe Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained virtually unchanged at a weak level of 43.2 points in September 2018. "The latest figure dashes any hope that the sharp PMI decline in August was a once-off occurrence", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in its monthly PMI report.

The average level of the PMI in Q3 of 2018 was 46 index points, which is the lowest average since Q3 of 2017 and 3.5 points below the average recorded in Q2 of 2018.

Sharp fall in PMI possibly reflects bleak sentiments around land debate

PMIdown_100.jpgThe seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 43.4 points in August from 51.5 points recorded in July. August's level is the lowest recorded in more than a year.

Overall, the average level of the PMI recorded during the first two months of Q3 of 2018 was 47.5, which is below the neutral 50-point mark and two points below the average recorded in Q2 of 2018.

The deterioration was driven by sharp declines in the New Sales Orders Index as well as the Business Activity Index. However, inventories and supplier deliveries came in above the neutral 50-point mark in August, which provided some support to the headline PMI, noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).


 

 

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