PMI

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) plunged in July, signalling that the output recovery in the manufacturing sector was set back notably at the start of Q3. From an elevated 57.4 in June, the headline PMI suffered a record single-month decline of almost 14 points. It dropped to 43.5 in July, which is well below the neutral 50 level.

The magnitude of the monthly decline, which dragged the PMI down to the lowest level since May 2020, was worse than during the hard lockdown in April 2020. At that stage, the SA manufacturing PMI and PMIs across the globe were (counterintuitively) propped up by a big increase in the supplier deliveries index.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a solid 57.8 points in May 2021 from 56.2 in April. Four of the five subcomponents remained well above the neutral 50-point mark with only the employment index dipping back into negative terrain. In all, the average level of the PMI recorded in the first two months of Q2 2021 (57 points) is well above Q1's average (53.8), which suggests that the sector is on track to record another quarterly expansion. A significant annual expansion is effectively guaranteed given the extremely low base set in Q2 2020.

Following three consecutive months of improvement, the seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined slightly to 56.2 index points in April 2021, from 57.4 in March. Despite the modest pullback, the index is now about 2.5 points above the average recorded in Quarter 1 of 2021 and about 26 points above the April 2020 reading recorded during the strictest phase of South Africa's COVID-19 lockdown.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 53 index points in February 2021 from 50.9 in the previous month. The further increase (January 2021 was 0.6 points up from December 2020) was supported by three of the five sub-components gaining relative to January. Only the Employment Index moved lower, while the Supplier Deliveries Index also ticked down but remained well above the neutral 50-point mark and thus supported the headline figure.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined further to 50.3 index points in December 2020, down from 52.6 in November. This is the lowest level since July 2020.

The reading just above 50 index points suggests that growth is levelling off in the manufacturing sector after solid month-on-month gains were recorded in the wake of April 2020's lockdown-induced plunge in activity.

"Despite a strong start in October 2020, the average reading for Quarter 4 is basically unchanged from Quarter 3, which suggests that while another quarter-on-quarter uptick in manufacturing output is likely, the pace of the recovery momentum has slowed", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 52.6 index points in November from the solid 60.9 points recorded in October. The decline comes after three consecutive upward moves and brings the index to the lowest level since July 2020.

While still signalling an improvement in business conditions, the drop suggests that the manufacturing sector's recovery is starting to lose momentum. This was to be expected as output levels for many subsectors are nearing pre-pandemic levels and will need sustained growth in demand to fuel a further output expansion, noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in statement.

Following a robust increase in August 2020, the Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked up further to 58.3 index points in September. The shift to a lower lockdown level mid-month likely drove the further improvement in business conditions in the local manufacturing sector.

However, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) cautioned that the fact that the level of the PMI is now above pre-pandemic levels does not directly translate to official manufacturing activity being back to pre-pandemic levels.

"Owing to the month-on-month comparison asked for in the PMI questionnaire, the high level merely means that conditions continue to improve (with more respondents reporting an increase in output, for example, instead of no change or a decline compared to the previous month). This can still be entirely consistent with the level of output remaining well below that recorded prior to the lockdown", said the BER.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2020 declined slightly compared with June, but continued to signal a further month-on-month improvement for conditions in the manufacturing sector. The PMI declined to 51.2 index points in July, from 53.9 in June, thereby staying above the neutral 50-point mark for a third consecutive month. This suggests that official manufacturing output should still reflect a month-on-month improvement in activity, but that levels are stabilising and that July's increase is likely to be significantly less than those signalled by the PMI in May and June.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2020 showed that conditions continued to improve in the South African manufacturing sector. This is after most of the sector came to a near standstill during the nationwide Level 5 lockdown in April 2020 and only partially returned to normal production levels in May 2020.

The headline PMI rose further to 53.9 index points in June, up from 50.2 in May.

Importantly, while the headline PMI rose to a multi-year high, this does not mean that the level of actual manufacturing production rose to a multi-year high. "Instead, the further rise in June merely means that a solid month-on-month increase was likely recorded", said the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

The Business Activity Index of the Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey crashed to an all-time low of a mere 5.1 index points in April 2020. The decline means that manufacturing output came to a near standstill during the nationwide lockdown, with almost all respondents reporting a decline in activity compared to the previous month.

During Quarter 1 of 2020, the seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) experienced its weakest quarterly performance since 2009. The PMI averaged at 45.9 index points, compared with 47.6 in Quarter 4 of 2019.

The weak quarterly outcome was despite the PMI improving to 48.1 index points in March 2020, from 44.3 index points in February. Nonetheless, the PMI still remained in contractionary terrain for the 14th consecutive month.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined for a fourth consecutive month to reach 44.3 points in February 2020. The 0.9-point decline brought the index to its lowest level since the second half of 2009 when the economy started to recover from a deep recession triggered by the global financial crisis.

"At four points below the average reading in 2019, the current level is only six points above the lowest point reached in 2009", noted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in a statement.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) started 2020 on the back foot and declined further in January. The PMI lost 1.9 points to reach 45.2 index points, the lowest level since September 2019.

The performance of the five major sub-components was mixed, with two indices recovering somewhat from multi-year lows reached in the previous month, and three declining in January.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower in December 2019 to 47.1 index points, down from 47.7 points recorded in November 2019. The December figure is about 1 point below the average recorded throughout 2019.

The PMI paints a bleak picture of the manufacturing sector's performance in 2019 as the headline PMI managed to edge above 50 points for only two months in the year. Bouts of load shedding, persistent weak domestic demand and more intense headwinds from the global economy likely weighed on activity during the year.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ticked down to 47.7 index points in November from 48.1 in October. The decline was broad-based as four of the five subcomponents of the headline PMI nudged down compared with the previous month.

Despite the decline, the average level of the PMI in October and November is still slightly above that recorded in Q3.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.1 index points in October 2019, up from 45.1 index points in September 2019.

The October level was slightly higher than the average of 47.3 recorded during Quarter 3 and in line with the average of 48.3 points recorded during the first nine months of 2019.

The October PMI release incorporated updated seasonal adjustment factors for all of the seasonally-adjusted indices.

Four of the PMI's sub-components improved from September, with only Inventories moving down.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 41.6 index points in September, down from 45.7 in August. This was the second consecutive large fall in the PMI and brought the index more than 10 points below a recent high of 52.1 points reached in July 2019. At the time, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) did caution that the robust July reading was unlikely to be sustained given weak underlying demand conditions.

The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 45.7 index points in August 2019, down from 52.1 in July 2019.

While the magnitude of the decline may have been larger than anticipated, a fall in the PMI in August was not unexpected. This followed on July's surprisingly solid reading despite the weak domestic demand environment and growing concerns about the health of the global economy.

All of the PMI's major sub-components came in below the neutral 50-point mark, signalling general weakness in the sector.